bankroll downswing GTO tilt variance winrate This podcast episode dives deep into poker variance, explaining why significant downswings and break-even periods are more common than players think. Using statistical analysis and real-world examples, it helps players understand and prepare for variance in their poker careers while maintaining proper bankroll management. Statistical analysis reveals that major downswings and long break-even stretches are normal parts of poker, even for winning players with solid win rates. Understanding Variance Reality: 2.5BB/100 winners can expect worst downswings of about 105 buy-ins over 3 million hands 97% chance of hitting unprofitable 100,000-hand stretches in a 1 million hand sample Average maximum unprofitable streak can last up to 291,000 hands Standard bankroll rules should be adjusted based on win rate and game type Selection bias makes extreme downswings more likely over long-term play Breaking even for 100,000 hands is statistically normal for winning players Proper mindset and understanding of variance helps prevent tilt
