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With this poker variance calculator, you can estimate the deviations of your possible winrate depending on your distance, game type and limit.
Variance in poker can confuse even experienced players. Even if you've played a significant number of hands with a certain win rate, there's still a good chance that your true win rate is either lower or higher than your current results show. This means that you might be experiencing a downswing or an upswing, respectively.
For example, if you have played 120,000 hands with a win rate of 12 bb/100 in NL 6-max, there is only a 1 in 100 chance that your true win rate will exceed 18 bb/100 or fall below 6 bb/100. This means that with a 99% probability, your win rate will be between 6 bb/100 and 18 bb/100 as you continue to play. If you are playing at NL10, this also means there is a 1% chance that your winnings over the next 120,000 hands will be less than $715, and a 1% chance they will be more than $2,165.
Enter your current win rate, the number of hands played, the type of game, and the limit. The calculator will show the likelihood that your true win rate and winnings are above or below your current results. For example, with a win rate of 12 bb/100, 120,000 hands, and a NL10 6-max limit, you have a 25% chance that your true win rate is below 9 bb/100 or above 15 bb/100. This means that in 75% of cases, your win rate will fall between 9 bb/100 and 15 bb/100, with corresponding winnings in big blinds or dollars.
The calculator uses publicly available mathematical formulas to determine the confidence interval, assuming that player win rates over a distance can be accurately described using a normal distribution function ("The Mathematics of Poker" by Bill Chen, 2004).
Selecting the game type helps to set a typical standard deviation for the specific discipline. Standard deviation measures the strength of variance (spread) in results over a distance. Default values are set at 90 bb/100 for NL 6-max, 70 bb/100 for NL 9-max, 150 bb/100 for PLO 6-max, and 120 bb/100 for PLO 9-max.