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Even a professional poker player is constantly affected by luck and variance. How do you know if you are truly playing with a positive win rate or if it is just a variance outlier? This calculator will help you estimate your results.
Variance in poker can confuse even experienced regulars. For example, if you’ve played a certain number of hands with a win rate of 12 bb/100, there’s still a significant chance that your true win rate is below 8 bb/100 and you’re just on an upswing, or above 16 bb/100 and you’re on a downswing. The further your current win rate is from the threshold, the less likely it is that your true win rate is beyond that threshold.
If you’ve played 61k hands with a win rate of 12 bb/100 in NL 6-max, there’s only a 5% chance that your true win rate in the future will exceed 18 bb/100 or fall below 6 bb/100. This means that with 95% confidence, your true win rate will be between 6 bb/100 and 18 bb/100 as you continue to play.
Method 1: Enter your current win rate and choose the game type (Holdem, Omaha, 6-max, 9-max). Then, enter the threshold win rate below which you don’t want your win rate to drop in the future. The calculator will show the total number of hands you need to play at your current win rate to be 95% sure that your true win rate is not below the threshold. You can also enter the number of hands you’ve already played, and the calculator will show how many more hands you need to play to achieve the desired accuracy in determining your true win rate.
Method 2: Set the threshold win rate to “0”. Enter your current win rate and choose the game type. The calculator will show how many hands you need to play at your current win rate to be 95% sure that you are a winning player.
