12 Nov 2024 Advanced This material is for experienced players bet sizing bluff equity exploit overbet ranges Why are players betting three-quarters of the pot so often? It's not the most common Nash bet size and doesn't work exceptionally well exploitatively, yet it’s everywhere! In fact, doing mass data analysis using the new Chai Range Checker popup reveals that regs overuse b75 in 7 out of the 8 most common betting nodes as the SRP IP PFR: The data presented comes from a large database of 100-500nl regs. The analysis specifically addresses the question: 'When players place a bet, how frequently do they use b75?' This is distinct from asking, 'How often do players choose to b75 in that situation overall, including the option to check?' The focus is solely on the instances of betting, not the broader context of all possible actions. As shown, regs particularly overuse b75 on the river. In addition, the average reg does not overbet often enough in these spots. Looking at the raw data for just a few river spots: Although regs are using smaller overbets at roughly the Nash frequency, they are missing large overbets (b150+) in these spots. Most likely, you’re overusing b75 on the river and not overbetting big enough. This is a pretty significant mistake for two reasons – 1: missing out on value, and 2: not bluffing effectively. Reason #1: You’re Missing Out on Value B75 is simply not the optimal bet size on many rivers. Furthermore, it works poorly in practice. To explain why, let’s examine a spot: Example Spot BTN (Hero) v BB, SRP. 100bb deep. Flop [5.5bb] . BB checks, BTN checks. It’s easy to visualize the hands that BTN may want to check on this flop. This flop is not extremely favorable for BTN, who will hold many strong Ace highs (e.g. AT) that simply don’t want to put any more money into the pot. Turn [5.5bb] . BB checks, BTN bets 50%, BB calls. Betting for 50% of the pot makes a lot of sense on this turn. After checking on the flop, BTN may want to reopen the action with a variety of hands, including overpairs, new top pairs, and connected weak pairs (e.g. 75s). Betting smaller allows these hands to fold out some overcards while still getting called by worse. River [11.1bb] . BB checks, BTN ? This is where BTN’s strategy gets very interesting. Assume that BTN has many different bet size options on this river. I have a few questions for you: ● What is BTN’s most common bet size on this river? ● How often is b75 used? ● How often are large overbets (b200+) used? This is a great exercise, so give it a try before moving on. You might be surprised to learn that b75 is rarely ever used on this river. Many people might think that b75 is a nice bet size for top pairs, but these hands are actually strong enough to overbet on this river. Most hands have a lot more equity than you might think. In fact, underpairs and A9 are strong enough to overbet. The tendency to overuse b75 extends beyond just picking the wrong size in solver – it’s also a bad choice from an exploitative perspective. Regardless of what line you’re in, you’ll have some strong hands on every river. By leaning too heavily on b75, you’re likely missing out on value even on rivers where solvers might recommend sometimes betting your strong hands for this size. Of course, this occurs because most regs overwhelmingly under-raise and under-bluff-raise rivers. This insight can easily be found by using the Chai Range Checker for mass data analysis. Consider a hand like 99: This hand is indifferent between b75 and an overbet on the river. However, if BTN bets 75% of the pot, BB raises over 10% of the time at Nash: BB’s Nash strategy involves raising many unintuitive bluffs like A3 and T6. In addition, the raising value threshold is a lot lower than you might expect: KQ is a pure raise, and even KJ has enough EQ to raise. It’s a good idea for us to bet big with our strong hands. In the above example, you’ll get to the river with many strong hands that have close to 100% equity. This includes your strongest two pairs (K9), as well as all of your sets and straights. These hands would likely prefer to bet as big as possible if BB does not raise often enough versus smaller bets. Reason #2: You’re Not Bluffing Effectively B75 is not an effective bluffing size on most rivers and typically underperforms compared to larger bets. This can be demonstrated mathematically: Larger bets tend to outperform for two main reasons: people overfold more against them, and they become significantly more profitable when opponents do overfold. It's clear why opponents might fold more often against larger bets: most regs are risk-averse and frequently encounter others who underbluff with these bet sizes. It’s a bit more tricky to understand why larger bets are more profitable when our opponent does overfold. Essentially, if an opponent overfolds by 1% vs an overbet, our bluffs gain more EV compared to if they overfolded by the same amount vs b75. One intuitive way to grasp this concept is to consider how the EV of bluffing is ]generated. When you bluff, you gain some money when your opponent folds but lose a significant amount when they call. If your opponent overfolds, you not only win the pot more frequently, but you also minimize your losses because they don’t call often enough. With larger bets, you're risking more, so if your opponent isn’t calling often enough, you avoid significant losses more frequently. This makes overfolds against larger bets more profitable. In fact, a 1% overfold against b200 is almost twice as profitable as a 1% overfold against b75. To help interpret the data, we can convert overfold percentages for various bet sizes into a metric called "pot capture" (PC). This metric answers the question: “What percentage of the pot do our bluffs win?” The table below can be used to convert overfold percentages for different bet sizes into pot capture values. Despite the fact that small bluffs (b30-50) yield less pot capture, you might be surprised to learn that those bets also typically perform better than b75 in certain river spots. This happens because people massively overfold versus small bets. The relationship between the average reg’s folding frequency and the Nash folding frequency versus different bet sizes in one spot is shown in the following illustration: As illustrated, the Nash folding frequency (black line) levels off exponentially as the bet size increases. In contrast, regs (orange line) often underestimate how frequently they need to defend against smaller bets, leading them to overfold significantly against them. In addition, as previously mentioned, regs also tend to overfold against large bets. These points make both small bets and overbets more effective bluffing options compared to b75. The pattern shown above applies to many spots where regs overfold. However, they don’t overfold in every spot, so it’s essential for you to identify the specific nodes where they do. In addition, you’ll want to know exactly where the overbet outperforms the small bluff and vice-versa. This is exactly what the Chai Range Checker can do for you. It comes with complimentary MDA and self-analysis guides. With this powerful resource, you’ll easily discover: ● The best spots for bluffing and value betting ● Critical range composition data about how your opponents play in hundreds of nodes ● Bet size information in thousands of nodes across 8 preflop formations ● Lifetime access to updates and more! Get Chai Range Checker →
