19 Aug 2024 bet sizing bluff bluff catching value bet Today, we're diving into one of the magical elements of poker: value bluffing. By the end of this topic you'll understand what fantastic value bluffs are, where to find them, the difference between them and merge bets, and how to use them to maximize your advantage at the poker tables. Most players are familiar with the three main types of bets in poker: value bets, where we bet with strong hands hoping to get called; bluffs, where we try to push our opponent out when our hand is weak; and merge bets, which are more nuanced as they beat some of the hands in our opponent's range but still lose to the strongest ones. However, there is a fourth type of bet that's less discussed — a rare beast in the poker world called a value bluff. In some sense, value bluffs are part of merge bets, but there are tangible differences that justify considering them as a separate category. Definition of Value Bluffs To understand value bluffs and how they differ, we must first outline the logic behind classic merge bets. Imagine those spots where you three-bet out of position, and the flop and turn seem favorable. You double barrel, thinking about how to extract the most value, and then the river comes this: Let’s take a look at the solver's recommendation on the river when the effective stack equals 1/4 of the pot. In this scenario, our Queens are always shoved, and checking them would result in a noticeable EV (expected value) loss. To make our river strategy easier to understand, it’s helpful to know our hand equity, not just against the button’s entire river range, but specifically against their calling range. We can do this by running a simple post-flop simulation using the same preflop ranges and selecting the "equity versus call" option. In this situation, we see that our hand has 45% equity against the entire button range, but only 25% equity against the calling range. This means that every time we get called, we lose 75% of the time, categorizing our hand as a merge bet. The solver prefers to always bet our hand because, even though we lose often, the alternative line of checking is even worse. Checking allows our opponent to bluff with worse hands and take medium hands to showdown, instead of being forced to bluff-catch or fold. This, in turn, allows them to better realize the equity of their range. But how do we determine if our hand is strong enough for a merge shove on the river, ensuring it doesn’t end up being a value bet against ourselves? Several factors must be considered: #1: Stack-to-Pot Ratio (SPR) The lower the SPR, the more often we can justify a merge shove. However, if the SPR becomes too high, we should start checking our marginal hands instead of betting them. #2: Equity Against Villain’s Calling Range This factor is closely tied to the SPR. The less equity our hand has against the opponent’s calling range, the lower the SPR must be to justify a merge shove. To demonstrate this, let's revisit the hand analyzed by the solver and modify the effective stack size to 150 big blinds. For simplicity, we’ll use the same ranges on the river, but with a larger stack. Instead of having one-quarter of the pot left in the stack, the small blind now has around two-thirds of the pot size in their stack. Here our Queens maintain the same equity against the entire button's range, but their equity against the calling range decreases because we're using a larger bet size. This means the button now defends with an even stronger range. With only 20% equity against the calling range and a significant stack of almost two-thirds of the pot left, we should never shove and always check our entire range. Doing otherwise would result in a substantial EV loss. #3: The Number of Non-Made Hands in Villain’s Range The more drawing hands with no showdown value the opponent has, the more incentive we have to check-call against them instead of merge betting. This is especially true when playing against weaker opponents who may not be fully aware of their range. #4: Being Out of Position on the River This factor also influences our decision-making process, as being out of position usually encourages more conservative play, like checking, to avoid costly mistakes. Speaking of river play, being out of position is crucial for effectively executing merge bets. When we're in position, unless our hand has more than 50% equity (making it a value bet), it's generally more profitable to check and take the showdown value with our marginal hand. Merge bets can also occur on the flop and turn, whether we're in or out of position. The common trait of all merge bets is that they involve marginal hands that are called by worse hands just enough to be profitable, yet they do not make any better hands fold. Value Bluffs Now that we've quickly reviewed the concept of merge bets, it's time to introduce their close relative: value bluffs. Understanding value bluffs and knowing where they can be effectively applied is crucial because they help achieve our main objective in poker — burning our opponent's equity while effectively realizing our own. To use our hand as a profitable value bluff, several conditions must be met: Folding Out the Better Hands: The key characteristic that sets value bluffs apart from typical merge bets is that they not only get calls from weaker hands but can also make stronger hands fold. For example, consider my value bluff on the river with pocket aces, which I talked about earlier. Larger Bet Size: We must always use a larger bet size to make better hands fold while getting called by draws or bluff catchers, especially when we hold the best blockers. Better Equity Realization: To justify a value bluff, we must conclude that the alternative line, checking or calling, is less profitable against the given opponent. Only Effective Vs. Sophisticated Opponents: Value bluffs are only effective against sophisticated opponents. Never attempt to value bluff against recreational players, as they typically lack an understanding of relative hand strength and the role of blockers. Hand & Board Selection. The best candidates for value bluffs are hands that beat the obvious bluff catchers in the opponent's range while folding out stronger hands that don’t have any blockers to our nuts. The best boards for value bluffs are those with multiple draws. Example 1: Single Raised Pot — Button vs. Big Blind In this scenario, we're on the flop with a significant range advantage, so we opt for a polarized continuation bet (c-bet) size. The perfect value bluffs here are our third pairs. After we bet on the flop, we already make some of the better hands fold. We then proceed to second-barrel using the overbet on the turn with all of these hands, making most of the second pairs and a portion of top pairs fold, while still getting called by weaker hands like combo draws, flush draws, or a flush draw plus a pair — hands that usually lose to us at showdown. Example 2: Flat Call Out of Position in 3-Bet or 4-Bet Pots Consider a scenario where the small blind is against the middle position (MP) on a 5-4-2 rainbow board with a flush draw. On this dry board, the MP has many hands with high equity, such as A-high with two overcards or medium pocket pairs. On the flop, we can value bluff with our A5, pocket eights and sevens, and even A-Q suited with hearts. We can expect our opponent to fold better pocket pairs from sevens to tens, as well as A-K, while still calling with 5x, 4x combos, and pocket sixes. The solver prefers to call with these hands because they have more equity against strong overpairs. However, keep in mind that this strategy may not be as effective against "calling stations" who might call wider than GTO (Game Theory Optimal) suggests. And finally, here’s an example of how not to execute a value bluff: This hand was played by one of the high-stakes regulars whose game I've analyzed, so let’s keep his username anonymous. In this scenario, the player made a continuation bet (c-bet) on the flop. On the turn, any medium underpair becomes a poor candidate for a value bluff, and overbetting leads to a significant EV (Expected Value) loss. This is because: We don’t meet the criteria of making better hands fold: None of the top pairs are likely to fold. Our check-back EV is solid: There’s often more value in checking back rather than betting. We are highly vulnerable to check-raises on the turn: This is particularly true on dry boards, where check-raises may occur more frequently in real games than the solver suggests. And that’s it for today. I hope you’ve learned something new and enjoyed reading this topic. See you in the next one, bye!
