07 Sep 2024 exploit fish bluff Poker is a game full of myths and misconceptions, especially when it comes to recreational players (aka 'fish'). You've probably heard people say that bluffing them is pointless and that they will call you with anything. But what if I told you that this common belief is not true? Through data analysis and real-game experiences, I discovered a surprising truth: Fish fold more often than we think. In this article, I'll share my insights on how you can use this knowledge to improve your game and become more profitable. Myth that Fish Call Everything When I started playing poker, I often heard that recreational players are calling stations and call with anything, and that bluffing them was useless. It seemed like the only strategy was to value bet and give up on bluffs. But after analyzing over 200 million hands with the software Hand2Note, I found something unexpected: they actually fold much more often than the theory suggests! How I Found the Truth First, I looked at how a perfect player should fold based on the math. Then, I compared those figures to the folding frequencies of recreational players. What I found was surprising. Fish were folding about 10% more than they should, according to GTO, which is a significant difference. Despite the common belief that they never fold, the data told a different story. But why did this happen, especially when they often seemed to call with ridiculous hands? The Key Difference Lies in Preflop The answer to this question lies in preflop ranges. Regulars typically play around 25% of hands, while fish get involved with about 40%, and some of them playing as many as 80%! So, while they may occasionally call with weaker hands, they also have a much wider entire range, meaning they inevitably end up folding more often later in the hand. A Common Scenario with a Fish I'll give an example to make it clearer. Let's suppose we opened from the BTN and the recreational player defended the Big Blind. The flop came T♠️8♠️2♣️, he checked, we bet 1/3, he called. The turn came 4♥️, he checked, we bet 3/4, he called. The crucial mistake happens on the turn. There’s an old saying that "fish never fold draws", and in many cases, it’s true. They will actually call with several draws (such as weak gutshots or weak flush draws) that they shouldn’t have on the turn, and they won’t be able to do anything other than fold on the river against our third bet! In other words, they are calling too much at some point in the hand, but that doesn’t matter, because they will arrive with too many missed draws on the river. And even if they will call down with any pair, they will fold more than they should. Conclusion So, the next time you face a recreational player in a situation where a lot of draws have missed, don’t be afraid to fire that bluff! They may call too often on earlier streets, but in the end, they’re folding more than they realize — and that's your opportunity to exploit.