17 Aug 2024 bet sizing overbet ranges Do you regularly use overbetting in your game? Overbetting has become a powerful and popular strategy in recent years. Many old-school players, who are used to more 'standard' bet sizings, struggle to adapt to overbets. Some fold too often, while others call too frequently. Mastering overbetting can significantly boost your poker skills and results. What is an Overbet? An overbet is a bet that exceeds the size of the pot. Here are some examples: In this scenario, the pot is $7.5, and Player 1 makes a $15 bet. Since the bet size is greater than the pot, this is called an overbet. Another example: In this situation, the pot is $45 ($36 + $9), and Player3 makes an $82 raise. Since the size exceeds the pot, this $82 raise is an overbet. These examples illustrate what an overbet is. Now, let’s delve into the strategy behind overbetting. Why Overbet? Let's explore the key reasons why overbetting is such a powerful move: 1. To Extract Value The primary reason is to extract value. This may seem obvious, but many players miss out on value by making smaller bets, stuck with some imaginary limits in their heads Missing out on value means losing potential earnings. If your opponent is unlikely to fold, you should make overbets to maximize value. 2. To Deny Equity The second reason is to deny your opponent's equity. This is the most critical aspect of overbetting. When you make an overbet, your opponent's calling range narrows to very strong hands or bluff-catchers. Medium-strength hands often have to fold, burning their equity. 3. To Exploit Weaknesses The third reason is to exploit opponents. The vast majority of players react to overbets poorly. Particularly most players (including regs) have a tendency to overfold to large bets, making bluff overbets effective. Conditions for Effective Overbetting When considering overbetting, it's important to recognize specific conditions that make this strategy most effective. 1. Nut Advantage The first condition is having a nut advantage, meaning your range contains more strong hands than your opponent's. 2. Capped Opponent Range The second condition is when your opponent's range is capped, meaning they lack very strong hands and have more medium-strength hands. This makes it difficult for them to call overbets. 3. Blank Runouts The third condition is when a blank card falls on the board. After betting or raising in the previous round and getting called, if an brick card appears in the next round, your range still contains very strong hands, making overbets viable. Practical Example Let’s look at an example based on these conditions: Pre-flop: MP raises 3 bb BB calls 2 bb Flop (Pot: 6.5 bb): A♥K♣3♦ BB checks MP bets 4.88 bb (75%) BB calls Turn (Pot: 16.26 bb): 6♠ BB checks MP bets 24.38 bb (150%) Does the turn overbet from MP meet the conditions? Nut Advantage: MP's range includes AA, KK, 66, 33 sets, and strong hands like AK, A6, A3. BB’s range likely lacks these hands. Capped Opponent Range: BB called pre-flop and now has fewer strong hands, with most of their range being medium-strength. Blank Runout: The 6♠ does not complete any straights or flushes, fitting the blank runout condition. GTO analysis confirms MP's overbetting strategy here, indicating that MP should overbet with many hands, including bluffs like QJ or JTs. EV and Equity Overbetting situations often show higher EV for the overbetting player despite lower equity. In the above example: MP’s equity: 46.2% BB’s equity: 53.96% MP’s EV: 9.39 BB’s EV: 6.86 BB has higher equity but lower EV due to MP’s ability to bluff with draw hands, while BB must fold even some top pairs, unable to realize their equity. It should also be noted that there is no fixed size for an overbet. The more polarized your range, the larger your bet can be. Use overbets wisely to outplay your opponents!
