28 Sep 2024 moving up stakes bankroll After a period of good results, it’s time to move up to the higher stakes, right? However, there’s an optimal way to make this move up — one that minimizes risks and increases your chances of success. That’s what we’ll discuss today. Why Should You Move Up? First, it’s important to understand: why move up? Our goal as professional poker players is to make as much money as possible every time we sit down to play. When we move up, we play at stakes worth double or more than our current level. So, even if we have a slightly lower win rate at the higher stakes, it will still be more profitable. Here’s an example to illustrate: Let’s say you’re making 5bb/100 at NL10. Meanwhile, your friend, who plays almost at the same level as you, is playing NL25 with a win rate of 3bb/100. Now you wonder: is it worth moving up? To answer this question, you need to understand exactly what this win rate means in dollars per hour ($/hour). Profit Calculation Example Having a win rate of 5bb/100 at NL10 means that every 100 hands played, your expected winnings over the long term are 5 bb. Since the big blind at this limit is $0.10, that’s $0.50 per 100 hands. If you play an average of 600 hands per hour (the average number of hands you can play at 3 Zoom tables), you’ll make $3 per hour. Now let’s suppose you move up to NL25, and your win rate drops from 5bb/100 to 3bb/100 for various reasons — such as the more skilled regulars, the fact that you’re not yet comfortable with the limit, or you don’t have the same confidence you had at NL10. How much will you earn per hour in this situation? Let’s do the same calculation as before: 3bb/100 at NL25 = $0.75 per 100 hands. That’s 33% more than you were making at NL10 with a higher win rate! Playing the same average of 600 hands per hour, you’ll earn $4.50 per hour. Let’s think about this situation in an even more practical way. One thing that can happen when moving up in stakes is that you may slightly reduce the number of hands played per hour because you'll be making more focused decisions and playing fewer tables. Consider that you may play fewer hands per hour when you move up in stakes. So, let’s assume that your hands per hour drop from 600 to 500 when moving up to NL25. If in 100 hands you can make $0.75, in 500 hands you’ll make $3.75 per hour! It’s still more money than you were making at NL10. Important note: the earlier you start doing these calculations, the better for your poker career. Many players don’t make the best decisions because they don’t do simple calculations like these, so pay attention! It’s also important to consider that, eventually, with study and as you get used to the new limit, you’ll return to playing the same number of hands per hour (or even more) as you did at the lower limit, and you’ll also be able to increase your win rate. Process of Moving Up Now that you know why you should move up, it’s time to understand how to do so in the best way possible, maximizing your chances of success and minimizing risks. First, you need to understand that moving up is a process and should not be done overnight. A common mistake players make is that as soon as they decide to move up, the next day they start grinding by opening all the tables at the higher limit, only stopping when their bankroll has dropped significantly. This is a recipe for disaster. What I recommend is to take SHOTS! Moving up should be done gradually, taking safe shots at the higher limit! How many buy-ins should we set aside for shots? 5 buy-ins! If you’re playing NL10, set aside 5 buy-ins for NL25 ($125) for your shot. If it doesn’t work out, recover that amount at NL10 before trying again. “So tomorrow I can open my 3 Zoom tables at NL25 and go for it, right?” No! Poker is a game deeply related to your self-confidence, and you should leverage it to your advantage by creating a 'self-confidence momentum' when taking your shot. If I were in your shoes, I’d open two NL10 tables and just one NL25 table, generating three possible scenarios: If I lose at NL25 right at the start of my session: I’d close the NL25 table and only take another shot the next day or in my next session. If the session goes okay, neither good nor bad: I’d continue with two NL10 tables and one NL25 table and finish the day that way. If everything goes well at NL25, and I double my stack and don’t find the game much different from what I’m used to, I’d close one NL10 table and open another NL25 table. If things keep going well, I’d close the NL10 table and play only NL25. Can you see how this approach maximizes your strengths while minimizing your weaknesses? We take full advantage of self-confidence momentum while avoiding tilt and bad play at the higher limit if things don’t start well. This is what I’ve been doing for all these years playing poker, and it’s what I recommend to my students. So, next time you try to move up, use this method, and you will significantly increase your chances of success.
