18 Sep 2024 Intermediate This material is for medium-skilled players A-game discipline mental game mindset motivation moving up stakes studying There are certain habits or tendencies in poker that lead to bad judgment, irrational decisions, and ultimately can ruin your game. In this video, we’ll cover the 10 most common habits in poker that you need to be aware of and avoid. #1: The Peak-End Rule This principle suggests that people tend to judge experiences not by the sum of the entire event, but by how they felt at its peak and at the end. As humans, we often let these two moments define our perception of the whole experience. In poker, this can lead to poor evaluations. For example, if you're losing money in a cash game but manage to outplay your opponent's Queens with Ace-Jack, you might feel like your session was successful, even though you’ve been down the entire time. Similarly, in a tournament, you could make a hero call and win a significant pot, only to bleed your stack away later by failing to defend your blinds or making fundamental errors. The thrill of a big moment in poker can be intoxicating, but it’s dangerous to base your evaluation of a session on one hand. The best way to counter this bias is to track your results honestly, and evaluate your sessions with a clear mind - even when you win. This way, you’ll identify and correct your weaknesses faster. #2: The Illusion of Control The illusion of control is the tendency to overestimate our influence over events that are actually outside of our control. In poker, it's easy to feel like you're in charge, but luck always plays a significant role. When we lose, we often believe we must have made a mistake, and if we can’t find one, we either make something up or end up feeling frustrated. We do this because we want to believe we have more control than we actually do. On the flip side, even when we win, it’s not always because we were in control: sometimes, it’s just luck. The reality is that we have far less control over outcomes than we like to think. Sometimes, bad luck is simply unavoidable. It’s essential to move on from those games and not dwell on them. Serious problems arise when we try to fix issues that don’t exist. Even top poker pros like Phil Ivey and Daniel Negreanu experience frequent losses. If you want to succeed at poker, you must accept that some things are entirely out of your control. #3: Outcome Bias Outcome bias is a common pitfall in poker, where players judge decisions based on their outcomes rather than the quality of the decision at the time it was made. While it’s related to the illusion of control, outcome bias shows up differently. The illusion of control leads you to think you made a mistake because you lost, while outcome bias makes you believe you made the right choice simply because you won. For example, going all-in every hand might win you a tournament, but that doesn’t necessarily make it a sound strategy. Jamie Gold’s win at the 2006 WSOP Main Event, where he took home $12 million, is a prime case. His unusual tactic of openly telling opponents his hand, albeit with some bluffs, was controversial. Many professionals did not view it as an optimal approach, and since then, Jamie Gold has struggled to replicate his success in poker. You’ll also notice that few seasoned pros have adopted Gold’s strategy, further proving that just because something works once doesn’t make it the best path forward. The key takeaway? Focus on the process, not the result, and the outcomes will naturally follow. #4: Gambler’s Fallacy The gambler’s fallacy is the mistaken belief that future probabilities are influenced by past events, even when they aren’t. In poker, this means that no matter how much you feel "due" for something, like hitting a flush, it doesn’t increase the odds of it happening just because you’ve missed it for the last 20 hands. Poker players often talk about "the long run," assuming that over time, things will balance out. While mathematically true, the concept of the long run refers to an infinitely large number of hands, and realistically, you don't have infinite time. In any relatively short session, there’s no reason to expect your results to align perfectly with statistical averages. Because of this misunderstanding, many players raise their bets or make marginal calls, believing they’re bound to win soon. However, it’s acting on this flawed logic (not the belief itself), that damages their bankroll. The cards don’t have memories. Whether you miss your flush for the first time or the 20th time, each hand is dealt independently, and previous outcomes have no impact on future results. The best way to correct this mindset is to stop relying on past events to inform future decisions. When you catch yourself thinking you’re due for a win, take a step back and focus on the actual probabilities at hand, not your emotions. #5: Insensitivity to Sample Size Many new poker players fall into the trap of underestimating the amount of variation in small sample sizes. They misjudge how long and how many hands are truly needed to succeed. You can’t accurately assess the quality of play based on just a few hundred hands per month. To get a meaningful estimate of your performance, you need a much larger sample. For those looking to secure backers, hand histories of 20,000 to 50,000 hands are typically required. And if you have a history of 100,000 hands, your results and performance estimates will be far more precise. #6: Selective Perception Selective perception refers to the tendency for expectations to shape how we interpret events. In poker, this happens when players alter their strategy based on previous outcomes. For example, if you win a big pot with pocket nines, you might start overvaluing them in future hands, thinking they’re stronger than they actually are. Just because a specific hand worked out once doesn’t mean it’s always the right play. Ignoring this can lead to costly mistakes, as you begin to overestimate the strength of your cards based on isolated experiences. #7: Availability Cascade Availability cascade is the phenomenon where a strategy gains acceptance and popularity simply because it’s frequently repeated, regardless of its actual effectiveness. In poker, this means that once a particular approach or tactic gains traction, it continues to be adopted, even if it's not the best strategy. A real-world example of this is the notion that repeating something often enough makes it seem true. For instance, players like Viktor Blom, Tom Dwan, and Vanessa Selbst have been known for their unconventional plays that defy traditional wisdom. However, sticking rigidly to conventional strategies can make your game predictable and less effective. To excel in poker, avoid falling into the trap of availability cascade by continuously evaluating and adapting new strategies, rather than following outdated or overused approaches. #8: Confirmation Bias Confirmation bias is the tendency to focus on information that confirms our pre-existing beliefs while ignoring evidence that contradicts them. In poker, this often manifests when players form early opinions about their opponents and stick to them, regardless of additional information. For example, if an opponent raises the first five hands, you might label them as aggressive. Once you’ve made this assessment, you might overlook instances where they fold or play conservatively for the rest of the session. This bias can persist even if you encounter the same opponent in a different game or on a different night, leading to skewed judgments and potentially costly mistakes. #9: Conservatism Bias Conservatism bias refers to the tendency to cling to outdated strategies and data, even when newer, more effective approaches are available. In poker, this can be particularly detrimental because the game is constantly evolving. Players who rely solely on old techniques may miss out on improvements that could enhance their performance. While sticking with familiar strategies might have been successful in the past, it’s crucial to stay adaptable and open to new methods that could elevate your game. #10: The Dunning-Kruger Effect The Dunning-Kruger Effect describes the tendency for individuals to overestimate their abilities or knowledge, particularly when they lack the skills to accurately assess their own competence. Unskilled poker players may feel overly confident due to their limited awareness of their own inadequacies. Conversely, highly skilled players might experience self-doubt and anxiety because their advanced skills make them more aware of minor errors. Beginners often believe they are unbeatable after a few wins, only to later realize that their success was due to luck rather than skill. Awareness of these tendencies is crucial, as they can lead to poor decision-making. While it's impossible to eliminate these biases completely, recognizing them is the first step. Continuously practicing and reflecting on your decisions will help you build confidence and improve your game.
